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Policy, Politics, & Nursing Practice
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Predictive Model to Determine Need for Nursing Workforce

Mary E. Cramer, PhD, RN, CS

University of Nebraska College of Nursing and College of Medicine, Department of Preventive and Societal Medicine

Li-Wu Chen, PhD

Keith J. Mueller, PhD

Nebraska Center for Rural Health Research, University of Nebraska Medical Center

Michael Shambaugh-Miller, PhD

Department of Preventive and Societal Medicine at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC)

Sangeeta Agrawal, MS

University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC), College of Nursing

This article describes a statistical modeling study designed to improve targets of need for registered nurse (RN) workforce. The model is place-based and incorporates the concepts of clinical need and regional service utilization. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Nebraska (1993-1999), and the unit of study was the county (N = 66). A mixed-model approach was used, and five predictor variables (% age 20-44,% age 45-64,% age 65+,% White non-Hispanic, and area) were significantly (p < .001) associated with service demand. Coefficient estimates were applied to various population projection scenarios, and the model’s algorithm converted service demand into number of RNs needed to compare numbers of RNs employed with projected need. The implications for RN workforce policy and funding decisions—at both federal and state levels—are significant. Further research with a larger, multistate database will be conducted to refine the model and demonstrate generalizability.

Key Words: health service demand • utilization • workforce • nurses • shortage

Policy, Politics, & Nursing Practice, Vol. 5, No. 3, 174-190 (2004)
DOI: 10.1177/1527154404266785
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